The ‘remain surge’, and death of the establishment in figures

Our local election results are in and complete, so it’s time to take a look at what oddities we can see in the data.

There was a good deal of rhetoric surrounding a Lib Dem and Green ‘surge’, but that simply is not the case. In fact, it appears that overall, there was less than a 6% gain between both Lib Dems and Greens in total. This may sound substantial, but looking at the graph below, it’s clear to see that this is no more a brilliant electoral feat than ‘Other’s and Independents have managed to do.

The story here is that Conservatives, Labour and UKIP lost a combined 35% of all votes. The former two clearly due to Brexit, and UKIP due primarily to the fact that they failed to field candidates in hundreds of seats where they were previously.

We think it’s safe to assume that this was purely an anti-establishment vote. When you look at a map of the spoiled votes, there doesn’t seem to be a pattern, other than that the spoils have increased in all councils where we have data.

Hopefully, this has given some insight into what went on in the first week of May. Have a look at the local elections page for a more detailed look at the individual results by council and ward (including spoils where available).

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