See our predictions for the next General Election.
We take the data from the last five national polls, extracting the information about how voters voted in the last general election, and cross-reference this with how they intend to vote in the next. Once we have this information, it is a simple case of identifying the swing from/to parties and adding or subtracting that from the share at the last election.
But not everyone is going to vote…
With that in mind, we also extract the data from the ‘likelihood of voting’ section in the responses, and add or subtract that for each response cell, giving a final percentage of how the votes have changed and how likely these changing voter groups are to vote.
You can see this in the table below. The rows are the 2019 votes from each 2017 party, and the columns are where these voters are moving to. So, LAB at the top, and LIB on the left denotes the total percentage of Labour voters who are very likely to vote Liberal Democrat in the next election.